Opinion: What Does Siye want inside "Medrek" in Ethiopia?

Opinion | By Habib Regassa

The dangerous risks of allowing ex-TPLF members inside the opposition are becoming more clear than ever before. The newly formed FDD/MEDREK group which has united eight opposition groups so far, should not be naive about the real threats of ex-TPLF members playing both short-term and long-term destructive roles. All of us should learn from the past mistakes and the crisis inside ONC and CUD, when TPLF used its agents to divide up powerful opposition parties. Because we ignored the warning signs, the ONC was split and Dr. Merara Gudina was forced to create the OPC while the CUD was split forcing the Honorable Judge Birtukan Mideksa to create the UDJ.

If peaceful and legal movement for change is going to end the suffering of Oromo people and other Ethiopians, the opposition must clean up its house and avoid the sad fate of CUD and ONC. The most famous member of the ex-TPLF squad in FDD/MEDREK is former TPLF executive member and former Defense Minister Siye Abraha.

Though he was imprisoned after the power struggle inside the TPLF that began after the end of Ethio-Eritrea war, the details about the motives of his imprisonment and his recent activities are conflicting and controversial. Some insiders say he was imprisoned by design and the saga was a long-term strategy by the TPLF/EPRDF ruling party. They say Siye is secretly working with Meles Zenawi in an effort to tame the opposition. Meanwhile, other Ethiopians have made Siye appear like an Ethiopian hero like Ras Alula (a historical figure some Eritreans fear and a general who defended Ethiopian borders against Mahdists and Egytpians). Such conflicting viewpoints about Siye, and the fact that Siye is very soft on TPLF/EPRDF and Zenawi's interest to transfer his Prime Minister position to a friendly popular figure in 2010, has made many people very suspicious about Siye Abraha's acitivities inside the opposition.

What does Siye really want inside Medrek/Opposition?

There is no conclusive information on Siye's real intentions inside MEDREK but it is in the best interest of all pro-democracy Ethiopians to avoid disaster in 2010 election by keeping a united front. One information everyone can agree about is Siye was very unhappy about how the Ethio-Eritrea war ended. After over one-third of Eritrean territory was taken over by Ethiopian army in 2000, Meles Zenawi famously ordered an end to the war instead of finishing up the Isayas government in Asmara. Siye reportedly wanted to finish the job and replace Isayas with a friendly Eritrean leadership that would not cause problems to his government (like by arming ONLF in Ogaden and al Shabab in Somalia). Some say Siye wanted to capture Assab port and justify Ethiopian annexation of the port on the grounds that Eritrea initiated the invasion. But other Ethiopians say Siye did not really care about Ethiopia's national interest but only wanted to capture Assab port and establish the "GREATER TIGRAY" state which the pre-1991 manifesto of the TPLF promoted. Similarly, supporters of Siye often advocate for expansion of Ethiopia's Afar territory to include the Red Sea Afar region of Eritrea. All of these conflicting signs and information make it harder to understand the real motives in the mind of Siye Abraha. Though, Knowing  that the "Greater Tigray" ambition is more unlikely than the "Greater Somalia" dream, it is hard to imagine Siye really pushing for the expansionist goal.

The other theories about Siye claim that he is genuine about his support for democracy and support for the opposition against TPLF. This theory fails to pass many tests, including the question, what was the "special" eye-opening moment in Siye's life that made him change his views about the TPLF? Surely, Siye's eye-opening "special moment" can not be the mass killing of students by TPLF inside Ethiopian universities when Siye was still power. Nor the handing over of Ethiopia's ports in 1990s under his leadership, because Siye simply ignored all these atrocities committed by his TPLF long before his official "imprisonment." This should make us all wonder if Siye's anti-Meles stance is not motivated by humanity and democracy but by bitter power struggle or by design.  

Meanwhile the new popular suggestion is; Siye Abraha is being groomed to replace Meles Zenawi after 2010. So it will not be just a change of Prime Minister but also a change in ruling party since EPRDF and MEDREK share the common ideology of ethnic federalism. This theory also fails many tests because Siye is one of the leader of MEDREK/FDD but not THE LEADER of the party at all. The Tigre dominated EPRDF is also too insecurity to ever let a new organization rule the country even if it is a friendly one. Such unlikely full transfer of power also means Tigray can not rob Oromian natural and economic resources anymore. And Many people say that the TPLF sees the OFDM and OPC inside Medrek/FDD as too unpredictable, hardline and very similar to the OLF in ideology and in ambition. Certainly, after 20 years of human rights abuses, most TPLF officials will not feel safe and secure under opposition dominated government, no matter how similar in ideology. Thus it is very possible that the motives of Siye and other ex-TPLF leaders could simply be to play a negative role inside the MEDREK/Opposition when the time is right in 2010. But they would not be able to fully hijack the organization.

Recently, the well-known author Tesfaye Gebre-Ab is said to be attacking Siye Abraha group and exposing some secrets. According to words from opposition supporters, Tesfaye said Siye Abraha's imprisonment and release was a pre-planned tactic by the TPLF. He said Siye is in the opposition to protect TPLF's long-term interests, especially during the coming election. It could be true. However, Tesfaye is an undependable "Eritrean-Ethiopian" who reportedly hates the "savage" Ras Alula, though it is still very hard not to agree with Tesfaye's belief that Siye could be inside MEDREK to make the opposition sympathetic to the TPLF. All what Tesfaye said about Siye could be accurate in principle but not in specific details.  If most things Tesfaye said are true, all opposition leaders inside the FDD/MEDREK coalition should start restructuring and anticipating internal problems from ex-TPLFs.

Should Medrek work without ex-TPLFs?

FDD/MEDREK is by far the largest opposition coalition in Ethiopian history, representing most ethnicities and political groups. It is also the largest pro-peace and pro-democracy coalition that is established by willing independent groups for the sole purpose of bringing democracy to the country. But can FDD/MEDREK achieve successful inclusion of "Tigray's voice" by kicking out ex-TPLF leaders?  Also, are Siye Abraha and the "ARENA TIGRAY" party members the only non-Meles related representatives of Tigray? The correct answers to these vital questions are more important than ever before because there are BOTH positive and negative results when we allow ex-TPLFs inside the opposition. The possible negative results are already discussed above. The positive results of allowing ex-TPLFs is the advantage of attracting the Tigray powerbase of the TPLF so that the America-fiananced TPLF machinery is weakened. Both in time of peace and in a scenario of potential war in the future, it is important to remember the Tigray factor. Mengistu lost the war 20 years ago mostly because a combination of Eritrea rebellion with the more mainland uprising in Tigray. Trying to stop an attack from Eritrean forces by skipping and belittling the Tigray rebellion in the middle was suicidal for Mengistu. And today, with Tigray region being Ethiopia's northernmost border with the aggressive Eritrean government, it is a very important long-term strategy by FDD/MEDREK to allow a "Tigray voice" be included. Before the election arrives, the MEDREK opposition coalition should encourage other prominent, anti-government and activist groups from the Tigray region because we should not depend only on the Siyes and ex-TPLFs. There must be opposition activists from Tigray who were not previously affiliated with the TPLF and who can become independent and progressive voices for the people of Tigray. 

In general, it is important that the MEDREK/FDD opposition coalition improve transparency and establish more clear sets of regulations that would protect it from potential spoilers and TPLF agents. Whether it remains a forum or becomes a party, this MEDREK coalition must enforce clear guidelines, laws and practice democratic behavior internally. Creating a large coalition is not an easy task. Both the new OFC Oromo coalition (Oromo Federalist Congress) created by the union of OFDM and OPC as well as the new multi-national Ethiopian coalition of MEDREK/FDD must be equiped and fully ready to handle problems, surprises, shocks and many hurdles. In case ex-TPLFs play destructive roles inside this opposition coalition, leaders of MEDREK must have the capacity to manage the waves. When the TPLF decided to divide the ONC, it gave mass media access to the fake ONC. Because Dr. Merara Gudina and other real ONC leaders did not have the access to mass media, it took a long time to fix the crisis. So access to mass media must be one of the pre-conditions set by the opposition coalition before it does any negotiations with the TPLF/EPRDF government. Also, there have been new private radio stations in the country. So the OFC coalition or the MEDREK coalition should allow its Diaspora supporters and others in Ethiopia to finance and set up their own private station managed by the political party leadership. After the 2005 election, not only did TPLF gave media access to fake ONC and fake CUD, it also stopped the private newspapers and blocked circulation. But it has been hard for the regime to fully block radio stations like VOA. So either the OPC or the MEDREK coalition must set up new radio station both inside the country (like SHEGER FM did) and from outside the country (like SBO ). The MEDREK coalition also must be more inclusive to attract other peaceful opposition parties. Currently, most people in the "Amharized" population of the streets of Addis Ababa and Amhara region do not have a positive opinion about the MEDREK/FDD opposition coalition. So the coalition must find ways to attract and incorporate other opposition parties like the AAPO/AEUP, which is dominant in the Amhara region.

Unless this growing and big opposition coalition establishes appropriate organizational and technical capacity, it will fail to produce results. After 15 years of failed armed struggle against the TPLF, Ethiopian people started the peaceful struggle in 2005, but their hopes have been dashed repeatedly. The only competitive and multi party election held in 2005 did not bring the changes we hoped. There is no democracy and there are no independent institutions in Ethiopia today. If a party or a group hopes to carry out a successful peaceful struggle against the regime, it must become more accountable, inclusive and transparent.

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