The Media Line Staff

Richard Cornwell - Independent consultant and former fellow at the Institute for Security Studies "What we will see in Somalia is more or less violence. But it's highly unlikely that Al-Shabaab will stick together as an organization, never mind take over the country. We tend to have a very Western idea of what a state is, instead of understanding that the concept 'state' covers a very wide menagerie. To talk about some African states as failed is like saying that a dog is a failed horse. So Somalia is facing a long and protracted process and the Somalis are consistently able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A lot will depend on how the clans settle their problems, whether or not the Darood and Hawiye sit at the same table. Somalia will be impacted by how the international community, in particular the Americans and the Ethiopians, react to things. As unlikely as it seems, rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia would have a very strong effect on the future of Somalia."

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