(Addis Fortune) The politics of elections are on the horizon. For the fourth time, over 25 million voters in Ethiopia will line up to give their verdict on which party they would want to see govern them both on the federal parliament and regional councils.
Expectedly, people have begun to worry. However, they are worried not only because there is an overwhelming doubt of whether or not the next national elections are going to be conducted in a free and fair manner and that voters' verdict will be swindled in favour of the incumbent. Indeed, the political elite and members of the international community are consumed by such fears. Nevertheless, what concerns the average family is not knowing to what extent the process and results of the elections could lead to electoral violence.
It is a justified fear. And it is not simply because this country has suffered the consequences of the last national elections. Elections held in countries of the bottom billion as defined by Paul Collier, a professor of economics at Oxford University, are far from democratic instruments and platforms for free expressions of the electorate on who they want to hire to run their collective business. Elections in poor countries are, rather, sources of social polarization and political instability.
From Kenya to Pakistan, from Nigeria to East Timor, from Kosovo to Angola, Mr. Collier observed that the aftermaths of elections have pulled these societies apart. It has deepened their mutual mistrust, strengthened their prejudice and threatened the very fabric of their national unity.
Where societies are "structurally insecure" and have "structurally unaccountable" systems and governments, elections are hardly part of a process that helps countries conduct their political contest in peaceful and orderly manners. Instead, they open a Pandora's Box, exposing the structural weaknesses and even the absence of the institutions of the state.
In countries of the bottom billion, policies and issues have weak persuasive power on the electorate as opposed to ethnic favouritism and tribal loyalty. The elites of the respective ethnic groups are the ones to fuel such sentiments, in their desperate bid to prevail in the struggle for political power. This has been seen in Kenya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Zimbabwe.
If people here are worried that this would have the chance to resurface in Ethiopia, it is only a legitimate fear. There was a glimpse of this phenomenon - a preview rather - during the last national elections. Blame trading aside, the electoral process did little in bringing social consensus and reinforcing institutions. Instead, it exposed the weakness of these national institutions, which were assaulted by almost all parties involved. Their respective leaders took these institutions hostage to submit to their partisan interests at the expense of their credibility and integrity, or those on the other front attacked them in an attempt to score balance with their opponents.
In the absence of these institutions, society could not be secured or function for they are designed to organize the respective efforts of its individuals and groups. Maintaining the institutions' integrity and ensuring their credibility does serve the interests of both the incumbent and its electoral challengers.Anyone of them would desperately need them while in office to govern the nation.
Those contending to get political power would rather campaign to persuade the voting public on their policy menus. They could articulate their views on what they intend to do with these institutions, provided that they have been given the mandate to do so. Such is a kind of campaign that needs a lot of debate on policies and less of ethnic allegiance and personal bickering. Disappointingly, there is little sign of that nine months down the road to the polling date.
Certainly, the political dynamics and the matrix of alliances have changed dramatically when compared to the last elections. Indeed, there are series of laws promulgated since then. Whether or not the opposition's claim that they stifle peaceful political contest is yet to be tested in the game. However, there are reasons to be sceptical about the incumbents' insistence that these laws are meant to ensure orderly electoral process.
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