Kosovo  is expected to announce independence on Sunday, meanwhile a human rights report says Somaliland has 55% to 70% chance for independence recognition. According to this report, Wales and Scotland separatists have a higher chance of achieving secession from UK than the Ogaden separatists achieving secession from Ethiopia.


Kosovo edges closer to historic declaration of independence

The red Albanian flags with their two-headed eagles are fluttering across Kosovo as the Serbian province of Kosovo edges closer to a historic declaration of independence -READ FULL STORY



Related Stories- Reaction Around the World about Kosovo Independence

-    EU Support For Kosovo Violates EU Principles: Serbia PM
-    Slovak FM repeats opposition to Kosovo independence
-    U.S. encourages Kosovo to move forward on independence
-    FM: Cyprus will never recognize unilaterally declared independence
-    Security Council remains divided on independence for Kosovo
-    Kosovo breakaway illegal, says Putin
-    Moscow furious over Kosovo
-    U.S., Europeans Support Kosovo Independence
-   Grenades thrown during anti-Kosovo riots


-- Related Stories --

European Union Role On Kosovo Vs African Union Role On Somaliland

Somaliland’s multi-party democracy system is rarity in Africa, and the Muslim World, and the African Union needs to seriously consider Somaliland’s formal application of AU membership to reward for people’s choice. - READ FULL STORY

 
Independent Kosovo? Why Not Vermont?

Kosovo's looming independence raises all those questions and more. For starters: Why is statehood OK for some people but frowned on for others? After all, isn't the right to self-determination the essence of democracy itself?

How about Spain's Basque country becoming a REAL country? And what's wrong with a People's Republic of Vermont? There are at least two dozen secessionist movements active in Europe alone, and scores of others agitating for sovereignty around the globe. All of them, experts warn, will be emboldened by Sunday's expected proclamation of the Republic of Kosovo.

"We live in a world which is based around states," said Florian Bieber, a professor of politics and international relations at England's University of Kent.

"The United Nations is based on states. The European Union is based on states," he said. "It's going to continue to happen. New states will emerge, and states will disappear, like East Germany."

With his spectacles, bald spot and long white hair, the retired Duke University economics professor looks like Benjamin Franklin and quotes Thomas Jefferson. He believes that if Kosovo can become a country, so can Vermont, which was independent until it joined the Union in 1791 as the 14th state.

Thousands have died in long-running quests for statehood mounted by the Palestinians, and by rebels fighting to gain Kashmir's independence from India and Pakistan.

The Basques have achieved sweeping autonomy from Spain, but militants continue to fight for full independence. On the Mediterranean island of Corsica, birthplace of Napoleon, nationalists still set off bombs to press for independence from France.

There are also many strictly nonviolent movements willing to settle for autonomy rather than secession. And sometimes new states are born by mutual consent, such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic — Czechoslovakia until they split in 1993.

Kosovo formally remains part of Serbia, but it's been run by the U.N. since 1999, when NATO intervened to stop Slobodan Milosevic's brutal crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists.

Although the U.S. and key allies — including Britain, France and Germany — support its bid, Serbia and Russia fiercely oppose it. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that if Kosovo gains independence without U.N. approval, it will set a dangerous precedent for secessionists in Chechnya, Georgia, Azerbaijan and further afield.

Trouble is, there's no internationally accepted standard for independence, said Marc Plattner, coeditor of the Washington-based Journal of Democracy, which analyzes movements worldwide.

You can let the people decide, he says, but first you have to decide: Who are the people? "This is the great hole in democratic theory," Plattner said. "There isn't a sound theoretical or moral answer. One simply looks at the individual case."

Skeptics say the increasing flow of cash, goods and information across national boundaries has taken the shine off statehood. Others wonder if the already unwieldy EU and U.N. can handle much more. The 27-nation EU already has 23 official languages, and many doubt it could cope if it had to add Albanian and Welsh to the mix.

"At a time when borders are coming down in the EU, freeing up the markets and trade, it makes no sense to put them up here," said Angus MacGregor, an insurance broker in Scotland, whose nationalist minority government is pressing to break away from Britain.

The Scottish National Party has promised to hold a referendum on independence by 2010. Although a vote looks unlikely, it's not for lack of trying. After 700 years of struggle dating back to William Wallace and Robert the Bruce, Scotland's latest "Braveheart" is Connery.

"All of my life experience tells me that an independent Scotland will be successful," the James Bond actor said in TV spots aired last year. Belgium could be the next country to face a big breakup: A nasty rift between Dutch-speaking Flanders to the north and French-speaking southern Wallonia has raised speculation that the kingdom may split in two.

Other movements have been around for decades.

There's the drive to gain independence for Biafra in Nigeria's oil-rich east, and the fringe Puerto Rican Independence Party, still seeking to wrest back the island the U.S. seized in 1898 at the end of the Spanish-American War.

The United Kingdom looks pretty disunited, too, and not just because of Scotland. Some in Northern Ireland still advocate unification with Ireland. The Party of Wales wants an independent Welsh state. And in southwestern England, a boisterous secessionist group is trying to carve a country out of Cornwall. In the U.S., separatist movements advocate independence for Alaska, Texas and the southern states.

And more obscure groups abound. Ex-Soviet Moldova, just half the size of West Virginia, already has one breakaway republic, Trans-Dniester. But there's also Gagauzia, an autonomous no man's land. Though it doesn't have a prayer of gaining independence, it still sports a flag featuring a snarling red wolf's head.

Other "stateless nations" range from the Veps — people of Baltic Finn extraction in northwestern Russia — to the Sorbs, a Slavonic people who occupy parts of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland.

SOURCE: AP



Partial List of World Territorial disputes and secession movements (CURRENT SOVEREIGNITY )
 

** Short Term independence possibility (ST) %  
**  Long Term independence possibility (LT) %


TERRITORY \    COUNTRY                                         ST %     LT%


PALESTINE \       ISRAEL                                          55          95
NORTHERN CYPRUS\ CYPRUS                              30 -        45
KOSOVO *      SERBIA/UNITED NATION                90 +       95 +
VOJVODINA      \   SERBIA                                       2 -          15 -
ISTRIA            CROATIA                                            1            15
DALMATIA          CROATIA                                       1            10
KRAJINA           CROATIA                                         1            10
WESTERN SAHARA    MOROCCO                           40 -       75
ZANZIBAR          TANZANIA                                       10       45 +
SOMALILAND        SOMALIA                                    55 +       70
PUNTLAND          SOMALIA                                       25 -      40 -
OROMO STATE       ETHIOPIA                                  1          25
TIGRAY STATE      ETHIOPIA                                    1           25
GAMBELLA          ETHIOPIA                                       2 +      20 +
OGADEN REGION     ETHIOPIA                                  2 +     20 +
NORTH EASTERN FR. KENYA                                   1         10
COAST PROVINCE    KENYA                                     1         20
BUGANDA           UGANDA                                          1          5
KASSALA           SUDAN                                             2       15
SOUTHERN SUDAN    SUDAN                                  45 +   60 +
SOUTH.BLUE NILE   SUDAN                                     10     30
ABYEI             SUDAN                                                   2 -    10
DARFUR            SUDAN                                              10      35
BEJA              SUDAN                                                  2       15 +
TRANSNISTRIA #    MOLDOVA                               30         40 
GAGAUZ YERI       MOLDOVA                                   5 -         10 
SZEKLER (EAST TR.)ROMANIA                              1           15
SVALBARD          NORWAY                                       1            5
SCANIA            SWEDEN                                           1            1
ALAND            FINLAND                                              1            10 
FAEROE ISLANDS    DENMARK                               2            30 +
GREENLAND         DENMARK                                  20            50 +
BORNHOLM ISLAND   DENMARK                            1              2
BAVARIA           GERMANY                                        1                5
CHAGOS ISLANDS    UNITED KINGDOM             10 +           45 +
SAINT HELENA      UNITED KINGDOM                     2               10
ANGUILLA          UNITED KINGDOM                         2              35
MONTSERRAT        UNITED KINGDOM                    2              25
BERMUDA           UNITED KINGDOM                        2              35
VIRGIN ISLANDS    UNITED KINGDOM                    2              30
CAYMAN ISLANDS    UNITED KINGDOM                 2               30
TURKS AND CAICOS**UNITED KINGDOM           10 +           40 +
ISLE OF MAN       UNITED KINGDOM                        2               30
CHANNEL ISLANDS   UNITED KINGDOM                 2              30
WALES             UNITED KINGDOM                            2               25
SCOTLAND          UNITED KINGDOM                        5               30
NORTHERN IRELAND  UNITED KINGDOM             10             40 + 
ORKNEY            UNITED KINGDOM                            1                5
CORNWALL          UNITED KINGDOM                       1                 5
GIBRALTAR ***     UNITED KINGDOM                       5                30
FALKLAND ISL.**** UNITED KINGDOM                    1                15
ARUBA             NETHERLANDS                                  5                35
CURACAO           NETHERLANDS                              5                35
SAINT MARTEEN     NETHERLANDS                         5              30
SAINT EUSTATIUS   NETHERLANDS                       2               20
BONAIRE           NETHERLANDS                                 2                15
SABA              NETHERLANDS                                  2                  15
FRYSLAN           NETHERLANDS                              1                     5
MARTINIQUE        FRANCE                                        5                 40
GUADELOUPE        FRANCE                                     5                 40
SAINT BARTHELEMY ~FRANCE                              2                 25
SAINT MARTIN ~    FRANCE                                    2                  25
FRENCH GUIANA     FRANCE                                   5                40
NEW CALEDONIA     FRANCE                               35 +               65 +
FRENCH POLYNESIA  FRANCE                            25 +               50 +
MARQUESAS ISL.    FRANCE                                 10                  30
WALLIS AND FUTUNA FRANCE                            10 +            50 +
ST PIERRE AND MIQ.FRANCE                                 1                 20
REUNION           FRANCE                                         5                 30
MAYOTTE *     FRANCE                                           5                35    
BRITTANY          FRANCE                                          1                  5
CORSICA           FRANCE                                           1                10
ALSACE-LORRAINE   FRANCE/GERMANY             1                5
SAVOIE            FRANCE                                              1                 5
OCCITANIA         FRANCE                                           1                2
BASQUE REGION     SPAIN/FRANCE                      2               35  
NAVARRA ******    SPAIN                                         1               5
CATALONIA         SPAIN                                           2              35 
GALICIA           SPAIN                                                1             10 +
CANARY ISLANDS    SPAIN                                     1                 10 
ANDALUCIA         SPAIN                                           1                 5
VALENCIA *** SPAIN                                              1               5 +
CHUNTA ARAGON     SPAIN                                    1              1
ASTURIAS          SPAIN                                             1                1
LEON              SPAIN                                                  1               1
BALEARES **   SPAIN                                             1               5
CRIMEA  #         UKRAINE                                       10              35
DONETSK #         UKRAINE                                      10              35
CHECHNYA          RUSSIA                                        20              55
DAGESTAN          RUSSIA                                         5               40
TATARSTAN         RUSSIA                                       5             40 +
BASHKORTOSTAN     RUSSIA                                2               20 +
KALININGRAD       RUSSIA                                      2              35
INGUSHETIA        RUSSIA                                        5             35
STAVROPOL         RUSSIA                                      1              10
EASTERN SIBERIA   RUSSIA                                  2              30
TUVA REPUBLIC     RUSSIA                                   1           10
MARY EL           RUSSIA                                            2              20
YAKUTIA           RUSSIA                                            1             20
CHUKOTKA          RUSSIA                                       1              20
ABKHAZIA #        GEORGIA                                      30 +     50 +
SOUTH OSSETIA #   GEORGIA                                15        35
ADZHARIA          GEORGIA                                         5 -       25
MINGRELIA         GEORGIA                                       1         10
SOUTH. AZERBAIJAN IRAN                                    1          20
WEST AZERBAIJAN   IRAN                                      1           15
KHUZESTAN         IRAN                                              1            15
SISTAN-BALUCHISTAN IRAN                                  1            15
TAMIL STATE       SRI LANKA                                 10 -         20
ASSAM ^           INDIA                                                2            25
SIKKIM *******    INDIA                                              2          20
TAIWAN ********   CHINA                                          2          50
TIBET             CHINA                                                   2            40
XINJIANG (UIGHUR) CHINA                                      2          40
INNER MONGOLIA    CHINA                                     2         20
QUEBEC            CANADA                                         30        45
NEWFOUNDLAND      CANADA                               1          5
PUERTO RICO       UNITED STATES                       10        40
NORTHERN MARIANAS UNITED STATES               15 -      50
US SAMOA *********UNITED STATES                     10        40
GUAM              UNITED STATES                                  5         40
VIRGIN ISLANDS    UNITED STATES                        1        25
TEXAS             UNITED STATES                                  1          2
CALIFORNIA        UNITED STATES                             1          2
NEW MEXICO        UNITED STATES                          1           2
ANDINE REGIONS    PERU                                         5          20 
LOS LLANOS        BOLIVIA                                      15 +         30 +
SANTA CRUZ        BOLIVIA                                      20             35 +
TARIJA            BOLIVIA                                              10 +      20 +
BENI              BOLIVIA                                                 2 +         15

READ FULL REPORT