BLOGGER/KaffaAccording to the Eritrean propaganda, an Ethiopian invasion was supposed to have already happened last week. Obviously it hasn’t happened and the endless calls for war by the Eritrean government has truly become irritating, especially for us living in a 3rd world country like Ethiopia. Living in an already poor & unstable region of the world is a big disadvantage in everyway, especially economically, to attract investors from outside. One can’t welcome foreign investors on one hand while engaged in a bloody war on the other hand. (unless that investor is China) So whatever economic progress made in Ethiopia will completely be reversed if another war starts. Certainly, a war with Eritrea will be much more costly than the unnecessary war with the jihadists in Mogadishu. The same way Ethiopia should have never battled the jihadists in Mogadishu, now again, Ethiopia should ignore Eritrea and let the Eritrean government say whatever it wants. Actually, we should not pay attention to what the Asmara government does too. Obviously the Eritrean regime thinks Eritrean evangelical Christians are aliens from space sent by the American imperialist government to topple President Isayas using their bibles and pamphlets. So what? The madness in Asmara is none of our business and we do not have the money to make it our business. America has the extra cash to waste money and establish watchdogs of religious persecution 10 thousand miles. But Ethiopia is an entirely different story.
The Ethiopian government supporters keep talking about problems in Eritrea. As reported before, the Eritrean president said there is no opposition group in Eritrea and he said the constitution is useless. Apparently the Eritrean opposition politicians are all in Asmara jails and it is also hard to believe an absence of an opposition in Eritrea while thousands flee. Common sense tells us those thousands of Eritreans fleeing out of Eritrea are not fleeing because they loved what the Isayas regime is doing. But is this Ethiopia’s business? Again, we don’t have the money to make it our business. It doesn’t matter what is happening in Mogadishu or Asmara. Ethiopia is not the policeman of the horn of Africa and what happens in Eritrea shouldn’t be our concern.
The best scenario for Ethiopia would be to ignore the Eritrean provocations and focus on building the country. Focus on solving the political issues, continue elections, open up space like on the national television that is still monopolized by the state. Focus on negotiating with the OLF and solving domestic problems which will be the best defense in the long run. The government is worried about Eritrea arming opposition groups inside Ethiopia. That is legitimate. But why not solve the domestic issues? Certainly some members of the ONLF and OLF will laugh at me when I use the phrase “DOMESTIC issues” because they don’t recognize the Ethiopian state at all to call it a "domestic" matter. But inside the OLF and ONLF there are several moderates who observe the benefit of unity and respect Ethoipia, but with the current status quo of northern political domination, unity doesn't make sense for them. If the northerners think they are the only trustworthy guardians of the Ethiopian state, then forget about unity. So solving domestic inequalities and sharing power is the first phase of national defense. If that happens, then (hypothetically speaking) even a combined Somalia, Sudan and Eritrean invasion will not challenge a united Ethiopia, 80 million strong country. So the best defense is not offense as the Americans tell us. The Americans can say “the best defense is offense” because the American offense is not in their backyard in Canada or Mexico. The American offense is often 10 thousand miles away in the Middle East where, even if they fail, Americans won’t be gravely affected. In contrast, Ethiopia’s offense is 1 miles down south.
Anyhow, it is too late to pull out of the Somalia mess. But it is not too late to ignore the Eritrean provocation. Of course Ethiopian defense should not be negligent like last time. In 1998, the Ethiopian negligence was a crime. When Eritrea massacred middle school children in Ethiopia using jets and invaded territories in Ethiopia, people were wondering when Meles would respond and if the Ethiopian government didn’t care at all for Ethiopians. Knowing how much Meles Zenawi was deeply close with the Eritrean leadership; Ethiopians were starting to wonder if they even have a government to call in 1998. Certainly a government that sits back and watch its country get invaded is no government. Enough Ethiopian blood has already been sacrificed because of Meles Zenawi’s sympathy to his Eritrean attachment on his mother side. Enough billions of birr has already been robbed from Ethiopia and given to Eritrea because of Meles Zenawi’s sympathy to his Eritrean attachment. So hopefully, there won’t be a repeat of what happened in 1998. But that doesn’t mean we should not seek to be patient. Ethiopia should be alert but not easily aggravated. There should be a middle ground policy and ignoring Eritrea’s daily war propaganda is one of them.
If the rumors are true, there is no economy in Eritrea to sacrifice. There is no reputation for Isayas to ruin. And obviously, the 300 thousand army conscripts in Eritrea are tired of Isayas’s “about to happen” war talk the last 7 years so it seems in the best interest of the Eritrean government to start a war. But for Ethiopia, we should continue the no-war-no-peace policy with Eritrea (until Eritrea respects the law & demilitarizes the TSZ) while we incorporate more opposition forces into our multi-party government. And this process in Ethiopia should start with the ruling party talking with the OLF or by giving space to OLF’s so-called puppet, OFDM, to operate freely in Oromia. If the northerners can't trust OFDM to be a southern guardian of Ethiopian state, then they might as well forget about unity.
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