Sure, the mental state of both Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders is still in question after 100,000 people perished for NO reason during the last war. But there are the givens or reasonable rationales why both countries would perhaps need to avoid war even if it appeared appealing to them. Some Ethiopian and Eritrean opposition supporters which i have seen marching in the streets of America and Europe might have many more lists than i do. But In no order of importance, here is my list of strategic and other reasons why both nations would avoid war (in addition to the human casualty.)
For Ethiopia
1. Thousands of its troops are stuck in Mogadishu.
2. ONLF rebels would take bold actions against Ethiopian government, if an Ethio-Eritrean war occurs.
3. A new war would demoralize the TFG in Mogadishu if its Ethiopian allies are spread out thin.
4. Starting the much publicized new Ethiopian "millennium of peace" with a new war would be diplomatically damaging and domestically disheartening.
5. Government still faces internal dissident in parts of Oromia
6. Government will not get enough Ethio-nationalist support because ruling party doesn’t want to take Asseb port or other Eritrean lands deemed to be “Ethiopian” by Ethio-nationalists.
7. It would drive out foreign investors and potential foreign investors
For Eritrea
1. It faces separatist Kunama rebels and other armed groups in Eritrea.
2.National budget to afford a war is limited. Diaspora Eritreans are less able to send money after American closure of embassy.
3. With all opposition leaders in prison, non-separatist opponents of the government might choose “armed struggle.”
4. The 1998 previous Eritrean attack was a failure despite a late Ethiopian response.
5. The larger Afar-Ethiopians are able to influence Afar-Eritreans against government.
6. Other armed Eritrean groups in Eastern Sudan might attack.
7. Deteriorating life standards (less than 2% annual GDP growth) since Eritrean independence would become worse, creating more dissidents.
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Reasons why Eritrea & Ethiopia are not ready for war
I'm from eritrea and i would like to provide reason why eritrea is not ready for war: firstly i don't see any reason why we( eritreans) should go for a war? with whom? our boarder issue with ethiopia is settled and secondly the GOE is tiressly engaged in the development of the country for the well being of the citizen. no time to thing of another war. The GOEritrea is watching and, you can say 80 to 90%of his attentions is on the development, securing food, mining, developin the citizen..no time to think of war. but we're watching...by the way where did you get the information of armed resistance/separatist groups in eritrea? this's shows that's how you wish to see eritrea..divided, brothers fighting each other. As PIA said in the US, we don't wish bad wishes even to our bad wishers (enemy)
Author don't seem to know much about eritrea! I wish you knew more and explain to us in a more inspiring way.
it's funny that you put the kunama as a threat! the closure of eritrean embassy as a big issue and so on
I wish Eritrea and Ethiopia are not ready for war and the possibility of another war to vanish ...
but that possibility doesn't go away by saying irrational things about a system you don't know at all.
