Jimma Times staff
Answering to questions from Jimma Times, former US ambassador to Ethiopia, Dr. David Shinn said the two Horn of Africa nations restarting war is improbable.
Tensions are growing between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which have been at odds since the bloody border conflict that killed around 70 000 people. But according to Shinn “it is not in their interest to resume war.”
The former U.S. ambassador opposed Eritrean government’s claims that American foreign policy in the region is emboldening Ethiopia to attack Eritrea. “I don’t believe this charge is credible. If I thought that Ethiopia intended to attack Eritrea, I might have a different opinion” said Shinn.
This belief was shared by the International commission in the Hague which accused Eritrea of invading Ethiopia. Despite international reports, regional analysts also say the war was more costly than reported, as hundreds of thousands of lives might have been lost. Eritrea, which initiated the war with around 300000 troops, suffered several defeats as Ethiopia captured Barentu and a third of Eritrean territory. Accordingly, some claim Eritrea might have lost up to 150,000 troops as its remaining forces were cornered near the capital city Asmara, while Ethiopia might have lost as many soldiers as well.
Referring to the last war between the two countries, Shinn stated that though the minor incident on May 6 of 1998 was “murky,” it did not justify “an invasion of Badme by significant numbers of Eritrean forces.” He described an “even handed” Washington reaction against the two countries but said “there was confusion in Washington during the first several days after May 12 as to what happened in Badme.” However, “it soon became apparent to the U.S. that Eritrea invaded a territory that Ethiopia previously administered,” he added, reflecting what the claims commission also concluded.
Before the war started, the U.S. government had good relations with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. According to Shinn, such relations that appeared to give U.S. a good leverage on both countries might have led to “a bias in the American policy process to treat both parties equally” during the last war.
He said America “hoped to use its good offices to end the dispute [in 1998] and feared that if it condemned Eritrea, it would not be able to use” its neutral position at that time. Despite his belief the two countries are unlikely to resume war, Shinn said his prediction could still be wrong since “the Horn has arguably been the most conflicted region of the world” for over six decades, currently less unstable than only the Afghanistan & Iraq region.
